According to the Iraq Coalition Casualty Count , the Coalition is on course to have the lowest casualties since the beginning of the war:
The lowest-casualty month of the war so far has been February, 2004:
Now, keep in mind that one of the very worst months of the war came only two months after that, in April, 2004, when the Coalition lost 140 brave volunteers. The violence rises and falls in Iraq, and has done so cyclically several times before during this war. There is no gurantee that the latest relative lull will hold. This latest abeyance of violence seems to be the product of planning rather than luck however, and al-Qaeda and the other insurgent groups have lost the initiative and ability to create widespread violence on demand. It also seems quite clear that there is no civil war in Iraq now, if there ever was one.
Let's see if the trend actually holds. Six more months of this (just one more Friedman Unit), and I am convinced that the war is over in all but name.