Barack Obama's excellent adventure in Europe may have backfired:
"The Friday-Sunday poll, mostly conducted as Obama was returning from his much-publicized overseas trip and released just this hour, shows McCain now ahead 49%-45% among voters that Gallup believes are most likely to go to the polls in November. In late June, he was behind among likely voters, 50%-44%."
Gallup daily had shown Obama widening his lead over McCain during his European trip. However:
Obama gained ground over McCain in each of the last three tracking updates, but today's average shows no further gains and a slight drop of Obama's percent of the vote from 49% to 48% [to McCain's 40%].
This is among the less reliable 'registered voters' metric.
This is not an impressive peformance by Obama. He was lauded by a gushing press as the biggest thing since the Beatles, with every finely crafted photo-op possible, in a year when absolutely everyone is supposed to hate the Republicans. Obama has a huge campaign staff doing an effective job, he has more money than he knows what to do with, and McCain and his campaign are continuing to prove themselves inept.
Yet Obama can't close the deal. He should be very worried.